Brewers Sign Doug Davis to a 1 Year Deal

The Brewers signed a pitcher just like I wanted them to. The problem is they signed the wrong guy for too much money. Doug Davis is not a good pitcher. Why they felt the need to guarantee him $5.25 Million is beyond me but let's try to see what  they saw in Davis:

• He is an innings eater who is a good bet to make all his starts. While that helps what point is there to throwing a lot of innings if he doesn't give the team a good chance to win in those innings. Sound like someone familiar... and I thought they had learned their lesson with Braden Looper, sigh.
• He had a shiny 4.12 ERA last year. Sometimes I think Doug Melvin doesn't even looks at any other stats than ERA. You might remember something similar happening with Jeff Suppan... sigh.

Davis is basically a left handed Braden Looper. The updated rotation looks like this:


1. Gallardo
2. Wolf
3.Manny Parra
4. Davis
5. Riske/Suppan


This is probably just a one win upgrade (wow Jeff Suppan must be bad). Considering they could have gotten Joel Pineiro for just $5-7 Million more than Davis while adding maybe 4 or 5 more wins it makes this deal look even worse. And don't tell me they don't have the money, if they can pay Doug Davis $5.25 Million they can pay Pineiro $10-12 Million.


On a separate note tommorow's post about why they should sign 1 more pitcher is cancelled because of this signing. It will be replaced by a post on the prospect of trading Prince Fielder if, and only if, they don't for some reason have the money to sign him long term.


P.S. I still think to be a playoff contender they need 1 more serviceable pitcher.

Predicting the Brewers Win Total for Next Year and How a Little Pitching Can Go a Long Way

The Brewers went 80-82 last year and finished in 3rd place in the central. Using the Pythagorean Theorem invented by Bill James let's take a look at how few runs they would need to give up to win x amount of games (using the 785 runs scored from last year). If you are unfamiliar with the Pythagorean Theorem look here.

95 Wins: 660 RA                                   Average RA (Runs against)
90 Wins: 702 RA                                   last year was about 755.
85 Wins: 746 RA
80 Wins: 795 RA
75 Wins: 845 RA

The Brew Crew gave up 818 runs last year suggesting that their 80-82 record was a little lucky. Let's now take a look at how the Brewers got better and how they regressed.

How the Brewers got better:

• They now have a great defensive CF in Carlos Gomez. Using the runs saved stat on Bill James Online Gomez should save the Brewers about 18 runs over Mike Cameron if he plays CF everyday.
• Alcides Escobar will be in the big leagues for the whole season. He projects as a plus defender at SS. I'll guess he saves them 5 runs.
• They signed Randy Wolf. I'll predict he is a 5 win upgrade (or about 50 runs) over the junk he is replacing (coughBradenLoopercough).

How the Brewers regressed:

• They lost Mike Cameron's offense of 83 runs created compared to my estimate for Carlos Gomez of 60 RC.

Therefore they improved about 70 runs against (Not as hard as you would think. They were 5th worst in the league last year). Unfortunately, that estimate is a little optimistic. Their offense should be about the same next year with the growth of Ryan Braun and a full season from Rickie Weeks. So here is the new realistic prediction:  785 runs scored and 770 runs against or about 83 wins.

Tomorrow: Why the Brewers should sign at least 1 more pitcher and why he would practically pay for himself.

Stats courtesy of Bill James Online

Suppan's Horrible Contract and Its Impact on Prince Fielder

4 years, $42 Million. In my opinion the 2nd worst contract for a pitcher behind Barry Zito. At the time he signed the deal he was a 3rd or 4th starter with no upside because of his low K/9 and only mediocre for a finesse pitcher control. He was coming off of a season in which he had a 1.45 WHIP. That is a ridiculously high number that suggests a middling 5th starter. On top of that opposing batters had hit .280 against him. And they were certainly not weak hits (49 doubles and 21 HRs). What the Brewers saw in him is beyond me. The good news about his contract? It's up after this year.

Which bring us to our next topic. Will the Brewers be able to sign Prince Fielder long term? I believe the answer to that is yes because Suppan's albatross of a contract is coming off the books after this year. That means if they are smart they will spend this extra money on Fielder instead of just pocketing it. It is essential for the Brewers to keep their own players because it is hard for them to attract premium free agents to Milwaukee.

I agree with Ryan Braun. The Brewers have two young stars that have opened up a window of opportunity to win in the playoffs. It is up to GM Doug Melvin to capitalize on this with shrewd trades and a quality free agent signing or two. Unfortunately, shrewd is not a word I associate with Doug Melvin.

Stats courtesy of Bill James Online

Brewers Avoid Arbitration with Jody Gerut

The Brewers signed Gerut to an 1 year deal worth approximately $2 Million. Gerut can play all 3 outfield positions. Gerut is an average defender who hits okay. He will serve as their 4th outfielder.

Current Brewers Depth Chart

C-Gregg Zaun
1B-Prince Fielder
2B-Rickie Weeks
3B-Casey McGee
SS-Alcides Escobar
LF-Ryan Braun
CF-Carlos Gomez
RF-Corey Hart

Bench
Mat Gamel
Jody Gerut
Craig Counsell
Angel Salome

Batting Lineup
1.Gomez
2.Weeks
3.Braun
4.Fielder
5.Hart
6.McGee
7.Escobar
8.Zaun
9.Pitcher

Starting Rotation
1.Yovani Gallardo
2.Randy Wolf
3.Manny Parra
4.David Bush
5.Jeff Suppan

Relief Pitchers
CL-Trevor Hoffman
SU-Todd Coffey
SU-LaTroy Hawkins
RHP-Carlos Villanueva
LHP-Mitch Stetter
RHP-Claudio Vargas
RHP-David Riske
RHP-Chris Smith

If everything comes together and they add 1 or 2 more starting pitchers this looks like a playoff club.

Strengths:

• Offense - Simply put they have one of the best 3, 4 hitter combinations in the game. If Gomez, Weeks, and Hart perform to their potential the sky is the limit for this offense.
• Relief Pitchers - They have surrounded Hoffman with a bunch of quality relievers. Coffey is capable of closing when he is on his game. Hawkins provides some veteran leadership. Villanueva is capable of pitching the 8th inning

Weaknesses:

• Starting Pitching - They are missing an ace. Gallardo could step up and be that guy but he is only 24. Wolf is only a 3rd starter on an average staff. Parra provides some upside but the other back end guys are not Major League quality.

My Suggestions:

• Trade Mat Gamel for a starting pitcher. Straight up for Brandon Morrow would have been just fine for me.
• Sign Colby Lewis. His exploits in Japan have been well documented. 2 years and $5 Million is solid value for him.
• If they have the money sign Joel Piniero, Jon Garland, or Jarrod Washburn

Other Stuff

• Great article on ESPN.com about Ryan Braun's ability to hit premium pitchers.  Here is the link.