Predicting the Brewers Win Total for Next Year and How a Little Pitching Can Go a Long Way

The Brewers went 80-82 last year and finished in 3rd place in the central. Using the Pythagorean Theorem invented by Bill James let's take a look at how few runs they would need to give up to win x amount of games (using the 785 runs scored from last year). If you are unfamiliar with the Pythagorean Theorem look here.

95 Wins: 660 RA                                   Average RA (Runs against)
90 Wins: 702 RA                                   last year was about 755.
85 Wins: 746 RA
80 Wins: 795 RA
75 Wins: 845 RA

The Brew Crew gave up 818 runs last year suggesting that their 80-82 record was a little lucky. Let's now take a look at how the Brewers got better and how they regressed.

How the Brewers got better:

• They now have a great defensive CF in Carlos Gomez. Using the runs saved stat on Bill James Online Gomez should save the Brewers about 18 runs over Mike Cameron if he plays CF everyday.
• Alcides Escobar will be in the big leagues for the whole season. He projects as a plus defender at SS. I'll guess he saves them 5 runs.
• They signed Randy Wolf. I'll predict he is a 5 win upgrade (or about 50 runs) over the junk he is replacing (coughBradenLoopercough).

How the Brewers regressed:

• They lost Mike Cameron's offense of 83 runs created compared to my estimate for Carlos Gomez of 60 RC.

Therefore they improved about 70 runs against (Not as hard as you would think. They were 5th worst in the league last year). Unfortunately, that estimate is a little optimistic. Their offense should be about the same next year with the growth of Ryan Braun and a full season from Rickie Weeks. So here is the new realistic prediction:  785 runs scored and 770 runs against or about 83 wins.

Tomorrow: Why the Brewers should sign at least 1 more pitcher and why he would practically pay for himself.

Stats courtesy of Bill James Online